In everyday times, it’s “God Save the Queen” in England. On Wednesday in the World Cup semifinals, the plethora of bettors on Three Lions may adapt that to “God Save the Shots … and while he’s at it, help England score a few goals.” Covers checks in on the action and odds movement for the second semi, with insights from Paddy Power, spokesman for – you guessed it – Dublin-based PaddyPower.com, and Will Bernanke, lead analyst for CG Analytics in Las Vegas.
England is the birthplace of soccer, but the nation hasn’t won the World Cup since 1966 and hasn’t advanced this far since 1990, when it lost to West Germany in the semifinals. This year, though, Three Lions have come out on top in four of five outings, including a 2-0 victory over Sweden as a -118 favorite in Saturday’s quarterfinals.
Croatia hasn’t been beaten in this year’s tournament, although after going 3-0 in group play, the squad has gone to penalty kicks in its two knockout-stage matches. On Saturday against Russia, the Croatians were a -121 favorite in 3-way betting, but gave up a late goal in overtime against Russia to stand tied at 2. However, Croatia won the shootout 4-3 to reach this 2 p.m. ET semi.
At PaddyPower.com, which has shops throughout the United Kingdom along with Ireland, punters are hammering the English side. In three-way betting – 90 minutes plus stoppage time – England was a +130 favorite, Croatia was +250 and the draw was +200 through much of the day Tuesday.
“I’ve taken a peek at our trading screens, and, well, it appears World Cup hysteria has well and truly taken over,” Power said. “They’re literally flooded with bets on England, and that’s not just to win their semifinal, but also to win the tournament itself. Punters are weighing big on (the trophy) ‘coming home,’ placing bets varying from a tenner right up to wagers in the thousands on Gareth Southgate’s side.
“We’ve seen an increase in some of the more obscure first goal scorer selections, too, after Harry Maguire netted first against Sweden. Jesse Lingard has been popular, at 10/1, to open the scoring. He loves a long-range shot and has been known to score crucial goals for Manchester United before.”
In the two-way “to advance” option of which team will reach the final – be it in regulation plus stoppage, in extra time or on penalty kicks – modest Tuesday movement fell in England’s favor. Southgate’s squad was a -162 chalk early in the day and adjusted slightly to -167, while Croatia went from +125 to +130.
Meanwhile in Las Vegas, England opened +125, Croatia +240 and the draw +220 in three-way betting at CG books, including shops at The Cosmopolitan and Venetian on the Vegas Strip. Those numbers have seen a slight adjustment, to +130/+250/+200, respectively.
“Seventy-one percent of all dollars are on England. Sharps and the public are on England,” Bernanke said, while also noting that on the total of 2 goals, a huge majority of cash was on the Over.
In “to advance” wagering, England tightened 10 cents from -160 to -150 and Croatia from +130 to +120. However, Three Lions are drawing a majority of the dollars.
“Seventy-one percent of account money is on England to advance to the final, while 61 percent of over-the-counter money is on England to advance,” Bernanke said, adding that as things stood Tuesday night, CG books could use Croatia slightly, along with the Under. “But that could change on a dime.”
Across the pond at PaddyPower, though, there’s no question the book needs the ‘dog in a big way. Should England prevail and reach the final against France, liability only ratchets up, between futures bets to win the championship and all the money that will flow ahead of Sunday’s championship match.
“If England continue to defy the odds – bear in mind they were 20/1 at Christmas and 14/1 at the start of the tournament – we’ll be preparing ourselves for an almighty payout,” Power said. “One of the biggest we’ve ever had to stump up. But I’d say the English side of the trading floor will be too busy celebrating to notice. The Irishmen, though …”
Yeah, the rival Irish might not be quite as happy.
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